- in this method, for every candidate parameter set
the mean log-likelihood is computed only over the adverse half of the total
number of contributing events in the in sample. To be precise, the
log-likelihood contributions of all
events in the in-sample are sorted and the mean is computed over the lowest
half of the set. The consequent fitness landscape is considerably fractured
since small changes in parameters can lead to the inclusion and exclusion
of one or more events in the computation of the mean.
Without the use of genetic algorithms [29] - for example by
using only the BHHH algorithm - it would be quite impractical to find the
optimal solution for such a fitness landscape.
It is important to note that adverse log-likelihood values are not necessarily contributed by the events of largest magnitude in the in-sample data. The tail referred to in the current context - is the tail in terms of bad predictions by a model - the tail of log-likelihood contributions. The tail emphasized optimization allows the model to find a parameter set which alleviates the problem with its worst predictions by compromising on its better predictions. It makes the model more homogeneous in the quality of its predictions and as a by product of this effect this model also shows better performance for large movements.