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Next: Model 3 Up: Discussion and Results Previous: Model 1

Model 2

Rectangular simulation is the simplest of the models employing a covariance matrix at the basis of the VaR forecast and completely satisfies the BIS framework. The individual analysis of each series and series pair for the determination of the covariance matrix is the most important element distinguishing this and other models from historical simulation (model 1). This model (like historical simulation) makes no attempt to capture the dynamics of the financial markets - particularly with regard to the observed autocorrelation of volatility.