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Next: Bias due to portfolio Up: Problems of pathological VaR Previous: Near singularity

Stochastic errors

Even if we have very good models (and even if n>d), simply due to inevitable stochastic errors in the estimation of $\Sigma_t$ it is possible for the covariance matrix to become near singular and admit portfolios for which risk is pathologically underestimated. More often however, stochastic errors will lead to spurious minima in the VaR - which can also lead to a systematic underestimation of risk as explained in the next subsection.